195
ACUS01 KWNS 261951
SWODY1
SPC AC 261950
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE 5% WIND PROBABILITY AREA MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON LATEST ENVIRONMENTAL/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. AS OF
1945 UTC, A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD WAS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE
UPPER-80S TO MID-90S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH T-TD SPREADS
APPROACHING 30 F IN SOME PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. COUPLED WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THIS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. WITH AN INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE (PRIMARILY FARTHER NORTH WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY STRONGER). A LACK OF STRONGER
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, GENERALLY WEAK/MODEST LOW- TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW, AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND SEVERE COVERAGE, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS/THOMPSON.. 09/26/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KS/OK WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN BY
TONIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS PERSIST THIS
MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO KS IN THE PRIMARY ZONE OF ASCENT
PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH, THOUGH CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING WEST OF THE CLOUDS AND
WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW-MID 60S) ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL, SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX. RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING/INVERTED-V
PROFILES APPEAR TO FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
ON THE LOWER MARGINS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL/MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST OK NORTHWARD TO IA. OTHER ISOLATED
LIGHTNING FLASHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION ATOP A
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
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