106
ACUS48 KWNS 280858
SWOD48
SPC AC 280856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..DISCUSSION
..THURSDAY/DAY 4 TO FRIDAY/DAY 5
ON THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR PARTS OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS, WHERE CURRENT MODEL FORECAST HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER JUXTAPOSED. HOWEVER, THE FAVORED CORRIDOR IS
FORECAST TO BE NARROW, AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY,
FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
ARK-LA-TEX. ALONG THIS CORRIDOR, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP NEAR LOCALIZED MAXIMUMS OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK, SUGGESTING THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.
..SATURDAY/DAY 6 AND MONDAY/DAY 8
FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TO NEAR THE GULF COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR, WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 09/28/2026
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