449
ACUS11 KWNS 282149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282149
MNZ000-NDZ000-282245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282149Z - 282245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A VERY LOCALIZED AND LOW-CONFIDENCE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED ALONG AN
EAST/WEST-ORIENTED WARM FRONT WEST OF FARGO, ND. THIS STORM HAS
SHOWN TRANSIENT SIGNS OF ROTATION/ORGANIZATION. WHILE IT IS UNCLEAR
IF THE INFLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS TRULY SURFACE-BASED (GIVEN COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT), THE MVX VWP
SHOWS A CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH (AROUND 250 M2/S2 0-1
KM SRH), WHICH WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO IF
STORMS CAN ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW AND ANY RISK SHOULD REMAIN SPATIALLY LOCALIZED FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..WEINMAN/HART.. 09/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...
LAT...LON 46789745 47029710 47059659 46959610 46749598 46439601
46319640 46349700 46439740 46659753 46789745
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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