001
ACUS11 KWNS 282243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282242
KSZ000-COZ000-290115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282242Z - 290115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CELL OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL OVER 1.00", OR PERHAPS A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE FORMING OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO, NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
WITH CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA. THESE CELLS ARE ALSO WITHIN
THE INSTABILITY/THETA-E AXIS, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING WARMER
AIR NORTHWARD.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 0-1 SRH NEAR 100 M2/S2, WITH BACKED
SURFACE WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING. ALTHOUGH THE ONGOING CELLS ARE FARTHER NORTH, THE
SOUTHERNMOST CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY ACCESS THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. BOUNDARY-LAYER T/TD SPREADS ARE
REASONABLE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
..JEWELL/HART.. 09/28/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 38780306 39240285 39650192 39610146 39380121 38750130
38530152 38400208 38380264 38420302 38560312 38780306
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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