046
ACUS11 KWNS 302200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302200
KSZ000-OKZ000-010030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302200Z - 010030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS MAY PERSIST FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A STORM OR TWO MAY EXHIBIT
ROTATION WITH A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR FROM NORTHERN TX ACROSS CENTRAL OK, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXTENDING INTO EAST-CENTRAL KS. WHILE THE PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE LIFT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THESE AREAS, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 850 MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 40 KT THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY, THE TLX VWP SHOWS 0-1 SRH AROUND 125 M2/S2, WITH LARGER
VALUES FARTHER NORTH TO 300 M2/S2 AT ICT.
GIVEN A FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED STORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND
AREAS OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ESPECIALLY INTO KS), A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A MORE ROBUST CELL CAN DEVELOP.
..JEWELL/HART.. 09/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35529789 37929712 38219663 38279574 38089556 37919546
37469555 36149594 35509625 35169661 35139755 35239778
35529789
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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