537
ACUS11 KWNS 302348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302347
KSZ000-010115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 675...
VALID 302347Z - 010115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 675 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO SEVERAL COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS -- WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 675.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A LONG-LIVED, LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD IN RUSSELL AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES KS -- WHICH HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL PERIODIC/MOSTLY
BRIEF TORNADOES. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (ALBEIT WEAK) REMAINS IN PLACE AMID AN
ENLARGED, CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH (LIKELY AROUND
250-300 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH PER MESOANALYSIS AND VWP DATA). AS THE
CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD, THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADOES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS -- BEFORE STORMS MOVE INTO THE COOLER/STABLE AIR TO THE
NORTH.
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
A WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY AND THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE SHIFTING NORTHWARD CASTS
UNCERTAINTY ON STORM DEVELOPMENT HERE.
..WEINMAN.. 09/30/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39579721 39349718 39109748 38959787 38949820 39029849
39179853 39379843 39629808 39719793 39729761 39709737
39579721
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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