236
ACUS11 KWNS 010422
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010421
OKZ000-TXZ000-010615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 010421Z - 010615Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX WILL
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK. INCREASING SHEAR
PROFILES COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED, AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
WISE/MONTAGUE COUNTIES OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE VAD PROFILE AT FWS
HAS SHOWN RECENT ACCELERATION OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS, WITH 1KM AGL WINDS
OVER 40 KNOTS AND 0-1KM SRH OVER 300 M2/S2. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN A FEW WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS, EVIDENCE OF THE ENHANCED SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN THE INFLUX
OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND
MLCAPE ~800 J/KG), THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN THIS CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND THE SMALL AREA OF
CONCERN, A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..HART.. 10/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33489792 34169735 35029680 35029627 34709608 33799668
33459727 33229786 33349801 33489792
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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