112
ACUS48 KWNS 010902
SWOD48
SPC AC 010900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2026
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AS MID-LEVEL FLOW
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE, A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DOMINANT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST.
FURTHER WEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM
WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALONG AND NEAR THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
BY THURSDAY, MODEL FORECASTS MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S. A RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY IN MOST AREAS.
..BROYLES.. 10/01/2026
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