052
ACUS11 KWNS 011833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011832
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011832Z - 012100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SPARSE NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT, A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...A 500 MB CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ACCOMPANIED BY GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION (GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER). A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND IS SAGGING
SOUTHWARD FROM BENEATH THE 500 MB CYCLONE. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THIS FRONT RESIDES A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY
MID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS BENEATH 6.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING.
GIVEN ONGOING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. SEVERAL STORMS UNDERCUT
BY THE FRONT HAVE MANAGED TO PRODUCE MULTIPLE 40-50 KT GUSTS PER
REGIONAL ASOS/AWOS, ROUGHLY FROM HAMILTON TO FINNEY COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST KS. ASSUMING SOME SURFACE GRADIENT FLOW ENHANCEMENT IS
UNDERWAY, SIMILAR GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NOT UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. AT
THE MOMENT, THE BEST AREA WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER. NONETHELESS, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF TO WARRANT A WW ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 10/01/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37280194 37750101 37860010 37899898 37729842 37419805
37219792 36729788 36349817 36149863 36149921 36229986
36410038 36710124 36960184 37280194
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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