682
ACUS01 KWNS 020449
SWODY1
SPC AC 020448
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU OCT 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TODAY,
BRINGING SOME MODESTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-SOUTH. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING FONT AND BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
ADDITIONALLY, MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN POOR. AS A
RESULT, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST (500-750 MLCAPE)
DESPITE 60S F DEWPOINTS. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND STRONGER FLOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH TIME. IF POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN VA
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED.
..LEITMAN/HALBERT.. 10/02/2026
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