518
ACUS01 KWNS 031318
SWODY1
SPC AC 031316
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0816 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2026
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT, HIGHLIGHTED BY FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AS
A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THESE REGIONS, A MODEST INCREASE
IN MOISTURE, STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
SUCH AS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT SOME STRONGER/CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VIRTUALLY NIL.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH, A SLOW-MOVING FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN OF TEXAS WILL
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONSIDERABLY LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.
..GUYER/DEAN.. 10/03/2026
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