511
ACUS48 KWNS 040901
SWOD48
SPC AC 040900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2026
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..DISCUSSION
FOR WED/D4 THROUGH ABOUT FRI/D6, SEVERE CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL
ACROSS THE CONUS AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
PRIMARILY OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA.
FOR LATE FRI/D6 INTO SUN/D8, PREDICTABILITY BECOMES LOW AS MODELS
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA (NHC 30% CHANGE OF CYCLONE FORMATION). THIS, ALONG
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER TX/NORTHERN
GULF COAST, COULD RESULT IN A RAPID NORTHWARD SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ENHANCED SHEAR. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN UPCOMING
OUTLOOKS AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES.
..JEWELL.. 10/04/2026
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