707
ACUS01 KWNS 041628
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2026
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
..SUMMARY
A FEW ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
..FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (TOTAL PWAT VALUES OF 2+ INCHES)
PERSISTING ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK
OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW MAY FORM LATER TODAY, WITH MODEST ENHANCEMENT
TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED
ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHERN AL. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, CONVECTION MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXHIBIT TRANSIENT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST, WITH RELATED
WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE CONSTRAINED BY POOR LAPSE RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY, WITH
SOME GUIDANCE (NAMELY RECENT RAP RUNS) SUGGESTING THAT THE MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY NOT OCCUR.
..GLEASON/CHALMERS.. 10/04/2026
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