190
ACUS48 KWNS 060831
SWOD48
SPC AC 060829
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2026
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRI/D4 AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AND TEMPORARY
UPPER RIDGING OCCURS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME, AND A WEAK MIDLEVEL WAVE
WILL BEGIN TO FORM OVER TX. MEANWHILE, A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE FRI/D4 INTO SAT/D5, AS THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLVES. NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRING. AS SUCH, AN INFLUX OF RICH MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP OUT
OF THE SOUTH, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SHIELD AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING FRI/D4
NIGHT. INITIALLY, SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER LAND WILL REMAIN COOL
DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND INITIAL MODIFICATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AIR MASS.
AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS SAT/D5 IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL WARMING TO OCCUR, WITH TROPICAL YET
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE PROFILES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS HOW THE
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL LOW.
SOME MODELS INDICATE 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS, WHICH WOULD COMPLEMENT
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND FAVOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES GIVEN EXPECTED POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FARTHER
INLAND. INITIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY GIVE WAY TO AN EAST-WEST
ZONE OF SUPERCELLS AS THE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES INLAND. SOME
ADDITIONAL THREAT INTO SUN/D6 MAY EXIST AS WELL.
FOR THE PERIOD MON/D7 INTO TUE/D8, MODELS ARE NOW DEVELOPING AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT LATER IN THE PERIOD, AND COULD EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN A ZONE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL, HOWEVER,
PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
..JEWELL.. 10/06/2026
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