474
ACUS03 KWNS 090729
SWODY3
SPC AC 090728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE DELMARVA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING, AND PARTS OF THE LOWER
COLORADO VALLEY MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER KY/TN SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITHIN A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST. ELSEWHERE, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL INITIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITHIN A BROAD
BELT OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP FROM KY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL VA. THAT CYCLONE WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCING EAST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
..DELMARVA INTO THE CAROLINAS
CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST
ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR LIKELY TO LIMIT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE POLEWARD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
NONETHELESS, BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WILL SUPPORT POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUD BREAKS MAY OCCUR. AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL
EXIST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL
DATA INDICATE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN THAT CURRENTLY DEPICTED.
..LOWER COLORADO AND VICINITY
AS DETAILED IN THE RECENTLY ISSUED DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, THE
ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL COINCIDE
WITH AN AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THAT REGIME IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH BY AFTERNOON AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
..MEAD.. 10/09/2026
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