949
ACUS11 KWNS 091522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091522
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091522Z - 091745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME, THIS RISK WILL
SPREAD NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA THROUGH EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE
17-18Z TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN FL AND THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST AHEAD OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FL AND THE
PANHANDLE AS THE HURRICANE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS, RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (MID TO
UPPER 70S F DEWPOINTS) WILL OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL VICINITY.
LIKEWISE, LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY AS
THEY ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ENLARGED, FAVORABLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND INCREASING 0-1
KM SRH FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. AS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ARRIVES, 0-3 KM MLCAPE WILL ALSO INCREASE, SUPPORTING
STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN SUPERCELL STORMS
CONTAINED IN OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS
TREND HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED WITHIN A STRONGER RAIN BAND OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
VICINITY.
THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON, WITH THE RISK GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD
SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA THIS EVENING.
..LEITMAN/SMITH.. 10/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 29838728 30228739 30618739 31338701 31458668 31628528
31478421 31328351 31048297 30818278 29498271 29128293
28928377 28858491 28968584 29358676 29838728
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
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