232
ACUS02 KWNS 091730
SWODY2
SPC AC 091729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
..SUMMARY
THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
..DISCUSSION
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONSOLIDATION OF A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS INTO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGER-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST VICINITY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL INCLUDE DIGGING TROUGHING WITHIN
THE INITIALLY STRONGER BRANCH OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN U.S. PACIFIC COAST, AND CONSOLIDATING TROUGHING IN A
SEPARATE WEAKER BRANCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID- TO SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA.
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LATTER REGIME, THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL MAY ACCELERATE INLAND INTO THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SONORAN DESERT VICINITY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
DOWNSTREAM FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SPLIT, WITH BROAD MID/UPPER
RIDGING FORECAST TO GENERALLY CONTINUE TO BUILD WITHIN THE STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH, EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH, A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW,
INCLUDING REMNANTS OF ISAIAS, AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING ARE
FORECAST TO BEGIN GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD,
AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF WESTWARD BUILDING MID/UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF BASIN.
..SOUTHEAST
AS THE SHEARED REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PROGRESS FURTHER INLAND, THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY UNDERGO A
PERIOD OF MORE RAPID WEAKENING. AFTER CURVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO/THROUGH A DRIER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA,
IT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
RATHER SIZABLE SPREAD WITHIN/AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT
CONCERNING THIS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS, WHICH WILL CONSIDERABLY
IMPACT ANY CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES.
IN GENERAL, IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD LINGERING BELT OF MODERATE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW (PERHAPS WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CORRIDORS)
WILL SUPPORT A MOISTENING SECTOR TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER, ON THE MODIFYING SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS AND OFFSHORE OF MIDDLE/NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS. THIS LIKELY WILL INCLUDE THE RETURN SEASONABLY HIGH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT, WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE
70S F, WHICH MAY SUPPORT CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000+ J/KG TO THE
EAST OF THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL WARM CORE.
AS THE UPSTREAM MID/UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY PIVOTS TOWARD THIS
ENVIRONMENT, INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. AS THIS OCCURS,
LINGERING ENLARGED CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
DEVELOPING NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO WIDELY
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
..LOWER COLORADO VALLEY VICINITY
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL
SYSTEM, COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INFLUX OF HIGH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT OFF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, PROBABLY
SUPPORTS AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY, IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER
FAVORABLY. AT THIS POINT, GIVEN MODEL SPREAD, THIS POTENTIAL STILL
SEEMS RATHER LOW.
..KERR.. 10/09/2026
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