016
ACUS11 KWNS 100241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100240
FLZ000-GAZ000-100415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0940 PM CDT FRI OCT 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH FLORIDA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 678...
VALID 100240Z - 100415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 678 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN NORTH FLORIDA, WELL EAST OF THE WEAKENING INNER
CORE OF ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION...HURRICANE ISAIAS IS WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST AL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS
TAKING ON MORE OF A HYBRID STRUCTURE WITH TIME AS A RESULT OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND A NOTABLE INTRUSION OF LOWER THETA-E AIR WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE WARM FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOW TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS NORTH FL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. OCCASIONAL CELLULAR CONVECTION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST IN A CONFLUENCE BAND FROM WEST OF TAMPA INTO NORTH FL, AND
SHALLOWER CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE PRIMARY WIND SHIFT
APPROACHING THE FL BIG BEND. THE LACK OF INLAND PENETRATION OF THE
MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR HAS LIMITED TORNADO THREAT THIS EVENING,
WITH SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENTS TO LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
UNLIKELY TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WITH CONVECTION SPREADING INLAND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE WATCH, AND A MARGINAL SUPERCELL/BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT A BIT EAST OF THE WATCH INTO NORTHEAST FL. HOWEVER,
THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..THOMPSON.. 10/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30598132 30158159 29918176 29678226 29158287 29238324
29988397 30138426 30388413 30408372 30128290 30328223
30858150 30598132
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
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