627
ACUS03 KWNS 100723
SWODY3
SPC AC 100721
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
A MIDLEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS SOUTH TOWARD THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER-CO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THE LATTER FEATURE, A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. IN THE
LOW LEVELS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOSELY RELATED TO THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL
SOUTHWEST FROM THAT FEATURE, LINKING WITH A SECONDARY CYCLONE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES
A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM
WILL OVERLIE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER,
SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT DESCRIBED IN THE
SYNOPSIS. CAPPING AT THE BASE OF THE LAPSE-RATE PLUME/EML IS LIKELY
TO INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER, THE 00Z MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT TO THE
IMMEDIATE NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT PRECEDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE, MARGINAL PARCEL BUOYANCY AND
ONLY MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
..MEAD.. 10/10/2026
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