052
ACUS11 KWNS 101433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101432
SCZ000-GAZ000-101700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0932 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101432Z - 101700Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE WITH STORMS MAKING
LANDFALL ON THE SC COASTLINE, WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RESIDES.
DISCUSSION...DIURNAL HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO GRADUAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF
ISAIAS' REMNANTS, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT THE MOMENT, THE BEST
AIRMASS RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST GA (BETWEEN ONGOING CONVECTION IN SC
AND THE PRIMARY CONFLUENCE BAND ACROSS CENTRAL GA). THIS
SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS ENCOMPASSES MID TO UPPER 70S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND EQUIVALENT DEWPOINTS, YIELDING OVER 1200 J/KG
MLCAPE (WHEN MODIFYING THE 12Z CHS OBSERVED SOUNDING). SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE SC COASTLINE ARE SHOWING MORE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION, AND THESE ARE THE MOST LIKELY STORMS TO PRODUCE A TORNADO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVELY ENLARGED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED BY REGIONAL
VADS (WITH OVER 400 M2/S2 0-3 KM SRH NOTED), MUCH OF THE INLAND
AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE. GIVEN HOW STABLE THE AIRMASS IS
INLAND FROM THE COAST, THE TIMING OF A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
ONCE SURFACE-BASE DESTABILIZATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
..SQUITIERI/SMITH.. 10/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...
LAT...LON 32208038 31818087 31718109 31808161 32218209 32818244
33428254 33618236 33768084 33777900 33697884 33157915
32757964 32208038
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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