906
ACUS11 KWNS 111801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111801
AZZ000-CAZ000-112030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111801Z - 112030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AZ IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN DEEPER MOIST CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ LATE THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL, APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ARE SUPPORTING THIS MORE
ROBUST, ONGOING DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH ONLY MODEST BUOYANCY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT VIA A MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUPPORT TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. A BOWING SEGMENT OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. IN ADDITION, MERGING
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/ENHANCED COLD POOLS COULD ALSO PRODUCE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS. A THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT.
..BARNES/SMITH.. 10/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 33341436 33881437 34421422 34891412 35101406 35351395
35541383 35931375 36281340 36681296 36821268 36821241
36761234 36561207 36441191 36181183 35881168 35521152
35221133 34951121 34821096 34631062 34551034 34460994
34380954 34220935 33950917 33670951 33360993 33241030
33071067 33091115 33341145 33541189 33491238 33251273
33051310 32931340 32961377 33021404 33341436
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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