291
ACUS01 KWNS 130046
SWODY1
SPC AC 130044
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.
..CENTRAL KS
A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, BUOYANCY IS RATHER WEAK, WITH MUCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED NEAR/AFTER DUSK TIMING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT,
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. MEANWHILE, A
RELATIVELY LOW TROPOPAUSE WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION, WHICH
WELL TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE INTENSITY.
HOWEVER, SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE REMNANT WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE INCREASING NOCTURNAL NEAR-SURFACE
STABILITY.
..ELSEWHERE
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES LATER TONIGHT, WHERE ISOLATED SMALL TO NEAR-SEVERE HAIL COULD
OCCUR. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING FLASHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS, AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TX.
..DEAN.. 10/13/2026
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