936
ACUS11 KWNS 132009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132008
NYZ000-132215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEW YORK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132008Z - 132215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. A WATCH
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OSWEGO TO NEAR ALBANY
NY. PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS ZONE
TO THE LOWER 60S AND A STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER. TO THE SOUTH,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S, YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. AGITATED CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE AND ARE EXPECTED TRACK DOWN THE BOUNDARY AND GROW INTO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS ALOFT ARE
QUITE STRONG WITH 50+ KNOTS AT 500MB AND CONSIDERABLE VEERING
PROFILES NEAR THE SURFACE. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED,
WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 700MB AND THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
..HART/SMITH.. 10/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43807612 43067446 42547435 42267491 42757675 43047739
43367739 43617677 43807612
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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