021
ACUS03 KWNS 140719
SWODY3
SPC AC 140718
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN INTENSE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED
TO PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING TO
THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE SOUTHEAST,
EXCLUDING CENTRAL/SOUTH FL.
..MID-ATLANTIC
EARLY-DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AT SOME
LOCATIONS, BUT WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THAT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT, LIKELY YIELDING AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING.
..MEAD.. 10/14/2026
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