734
ACUS02 KWNS 141728
SWODY2
SPC AC 141726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST,
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH. A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
..MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IL DURING THE DAY AND SPREAD
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REINFORCE AN OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT FROM NEAR THE MS
RIVER EASTWARD ROUGHLY NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS IL/IN. THIS
EARLY DAY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL IMPACT WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION, THE DEGREE TO WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, A NARROW PLUME OF UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS
WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE, DESPITE EXPECTED
POOR LAPSE RATES. MODEST VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW
LEVELS, COMBINED WITH 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL SUPPORT
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO OR TWO (MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL IN). CONDITIONALLY HIGHER TORNADO
PROBABILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS DEPENDING MESOSCALE
TRENDS IN THE NEAR-SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLUENCED BY EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION.
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS OH DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE AS STORMS
SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TX TOWARD SOUTHERN
OK. A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL (AND FLOW
BELOW 700 MB GENERALLY WEAK). BOUNDARY-PARALLEL SHEAR VECTORS ALSO
WILL SUPPORT ANAFRONTAL/UNDERCUTTING CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
FURTHERMORE, MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL REMAIN POOR. A STRONGER
STORM PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR, BUT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
..LEITMAN.. 10/14/2026
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