007
ACUS03 KWNS 141908
SWODY3
SPC AC 141907
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..MID-ATLANTIC
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID-MS VALLEY
EARLY FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BECOMING ORIENTED
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS EASTWARD. WHILE A SEASONALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, POSSIBLY EARLY DAY SHOWERS, CLOUD COVER,
AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. WHERE STRONGER
HEATING CAN OCCUR, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-750 J/KG MLCAPE MAY
DEVELOP (MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC). THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE RISK WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. STILL, GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW, ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITHIN THE CORRIDOR
OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
..LEITMAN.. 10/14/2026
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