180
ACUS01 KWNS 141953
SWODY1
SPC AC 141951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO THREAT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE RISK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
..20Z UPDATE
SCATTERED STORMS, INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS, HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SPREADING INTO THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SEE MCD #2373 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW COMMENCING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
WEST TEXAS, WHERE CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED SEVERAL HOURS OF
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR, YIELDING 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION, WITH
SUPERCELLULAR MODES INITIALLY THAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODES
WITH TIME. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW QLCS TORNADOES IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN OCCUR AND BE
MAINTAINED.
ELSEWHERE, A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE
ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHERN OHIO. SEE MCD #2374 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY.
..KARSTENS/BENTLEY.. 10/14/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1130 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026/
..SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF OKLAHOMA TO THE OZARKS, AND ON A MORE SCATTERED BASIS
ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS IS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
(WITH PREVALENT 2+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEPT THE HIGH
PLAINS) TO THE SOUTH OF A SYNOPTIC FRONT, WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
CONTINUING TO EFFECTIVELY AUGMENT THE FRONT INCLUDING RECENT/FRESH
OUTFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREAS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING
WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY AND
MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD FLUX OF THE OUTFLOW-RELATED EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY, WITH PREVALENT INSOLATION AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE TEXAS LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS (AND POINTS SOUTH).
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE
TEXAS LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. MODERATELY STRONG
FLOW ALOFT (40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR) WILL SUPPORT SOME INITIAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RELAX TODAY, BUT SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET. SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST, BUT UPSCALE
QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE
PREVALENT THIS EVENING, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY
RISK.
..OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
A SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS AT MIDDAY NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER VICINITY. RELATIVELY
CLOUD-FREE SKIES EXIST AHEAD OF THESE STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. HEATING COMBINED
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000-1250 J/KG BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. AS STORMS INTENSIFY
REGIONALLY, STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH HEIGHT (YIELDING UP TO
35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR) APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
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