393
ACUS11 KWNS 141958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141958
TXZ000-142200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 141958Z - 142200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AND PRODUCING AREAS OF SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF STORMS HAS ERUPTED SOUTHWEST OF
THE MIDLAND TX AREA, IN A ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS THEY TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS. FURTHER CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTHWARD TOWARD LUBBOCK, AND ALSO
EXTENDING EAST FROM THERE ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
BOTH CELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DEEP-LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 40 KT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG, BUT DOES INCREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THE LBB VWP SHOWS
0-1 SRH AROUND 75 M2/S2. INITIAL VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS MAY SUPPORT A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO, WITH MOST OF THE SEVERE MODE BEING WIND AND
HAIL.
..JEWELL/GUYER.. 10/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31020285 31720280 32370256 33190201 33840119 34090062
34329997 34319948 34109918 33859913 33069978 31450086
30840148 30600192 30630255 31020285
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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