555
ACUS03 KWNS 150710
SWODY3
SPC AC 150709
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
..DISCUSSION
AN INITIAL, FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST
TO FRACTURE INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE POLAR AIR STREAM OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA, WHILE AN
EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST.
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN FL BY AFTERNOON, CONTRIBUTING TO DIURNALLY
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DISPLACEMENT OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM SECTOR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN
BAJA COASTS WITH A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY WITHIN A ZONE OF MIDLEVEL MOISTENING AND
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT FEATURE.
..MEAD.. 10/15/2026
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