864
ACUS48 KWNS 150821
SWOD48
SPC AC 150818
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
..DISCUSSION
THE PRIMARY UPPER-AIR FEATURE OF INTEREST IS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH,
WHICH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY/DAYS 5 AND 6. THEREAFTER, 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
POTENTIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY/DAY 8. IN
THE LOW LEVELS, SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL SLOW THE RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM OFF THE GULF INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS.
..DAYS 4 THROUGH 6/SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..DAYS 7 AND 8/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WHILE PARTICULAR DETAILS REGARDING LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH/LOW REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SIGNAL
THAT A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY COULD MATERIALIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
WHERE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY ON THE CONDITION THAT
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH.
..MEAD.. 10/15/2026
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