810
ACUS01 KWNS 151253
SWODY1
SPC AC 151252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS.
..MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARDS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS EVOLUTION WILL YIELD A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
FROM ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. INTENSE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
TROUGH, WITH 90 TO 100 KT AT 500 MB POSSIBLE WITHIN ITS EASTERN
PERIPHERY FROM CENTRAL IL ACROSS LOWER MI.
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WHILE
GRADUALLY DEEPENING. MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW, WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER/UPPER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MODEST BUOYANCY, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR REINTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS AND/OR NEW DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE BEST OVERLAP OF STRONG SHEAR (SUPPORTED
BY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW) AND BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED NEAR (OR
JUST SOUTH OF) THE WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM
SOUTHERN IL THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN OH DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND FROM
CENTRAL IL SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OH BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (AND ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY) AND MODERATE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS. LONG, CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES AS WELL. A SECOND AREA OF
LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN IL. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD TEMPER BUOYANCY, AND THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP UPDRAFT DEPTH
TOO SHALLOW AND UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE TOO SHORT TO MERIT INTRODUCING
ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..WEST/CENTRAL TX
AN OUTFLOW-AUGMENTED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW
JUST WEST OF MAF NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH JUST EAST OF LBB
INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MAKE
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY. A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY BUOYANT
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL
LIKELY TREND THESE STORMS TOWARDS A MORE ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL REMAIN POOR. A WATER-LOADED GUST OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED.
..MOSIER/WENDT.. 10/15/2026
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