294
FNUS21 KWNS 151633
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN L.A. COUNTY AND
SOUTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY...
..17Z UPDATE
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN L.A. COUNTY
AND SOUTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY AS A DRY, OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN SIMI VALLEY AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUSTAINED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAP AREAS
AND EXPOSED RIDGETOPS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO D2/FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENT RH
IN THE 15-20% RANGE WILL FALL TO AS LOW AS 10% IN SOME VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SURROUNDS THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CA.
...SIERRA NEVADA, PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NAPA
VALLEY...
FARTHER NORTH, THE BROADER OFFSHORE PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY. DOWNSLOPE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF
10-15 MPH (LOCALLY 20 MPH) ALONG WITH RH AS LOW AS 15% THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED AFTER POOR RH RECOVERIES BELOW 30% THIS
MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. SIMILARLY DRY, NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NAPA VALLEY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RH FALLS TO AROUND 10% THIS AFTERNOON IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/15/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0107 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSITION
TO AN OPEN WAVE, QUICKLY BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN DEFINED TROUGHING
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF LOW WILL DETACH INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT, AN INCREASING
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA THAT HAVE NOT SEEN RECENT RAINFALL.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY EARLY THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS OFFSHORE FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA. RESULTANT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WILL EMERGE WITH RELATED DOWNSLOPE DRYING FROM A DRY AIRMASS
ORIGINATING FROM THE COLORADO PLATEAU, ALLOWING FOR RH REDUCTIONS AS
LOW AS 10%. A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH COUPLED WITH LOW RH WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SIMI VALLEY AREA OF WESTERN L.A.
COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN VENTURA COUNTY.
...SIERRA NEVADA, PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NAPA
VALLEY...
INCREASING EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING INTO THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NOT EXCEEDING 30% WILL PRECONDITION FUELS WHERE ERCS
ARE AT THE 80-90TH PERCENTILES. EAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (LOCALLY
20-25 MPH IN FAVORED VALLEY CORRIDORS) AND DAYTIME RH OF 15% WILL
SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL BRING A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO PORTIONS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND ADJACENT
NAPA VALLEY AREA. NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY WILL TRANSITION TO EAST-NORTHEAST OVER NAPA VALLEY AND NEARBY
COASTAL RANGES AS RH FALLS TO AS LOW AS 10% BY THIS AFTERNOON.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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