555
ACUS11 KWNS 151959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151959
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST
INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151959Z - 152200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MIX
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHWEST IN, WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 70S F. JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST, A LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME EXTENDS FROM AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND TOWARD THE LOWER OH
VALLEY, WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S F AND DEWPOINTS MIXING
DOWN WELL INTO THE 60S F.
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE, RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW
MOVING OUT OF IL AND TOWARD CENTRAL IN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS LOCALLY
COOLED SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAY PROVIDE A RELATIVE FOCUS FOR
LATER DEVELOPMENT.
VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER CU FROM
SOUTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN IL WHERE CIN HAS BEEN ERODED, AND A FEW
CELLS COULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THERE. 1000 J/KG MLCAPE, DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KT, AND A LOCALIZED AREA OF SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY YIELD A SMALL SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTS AND A LOW-END CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO, ASSUMING SUCH CELLS
SURVIVE INTO THE COOLER/GREATER SRH ENVIRONMENT.
..JEWELL.. 10/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37308938 37318974 37469001 37659012 37839019 38109016
38428999 38718961 39028833 39108786 39108714 38948681
38498668 38158680 37878715 37378873 37308938
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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