513
ACUS11 KWNS 152308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152308
INZ000-ILZ000-160015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152308Z - 160015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST IL INTO SOUTHERN IN.
DISCUSSION...KVWX/KIND RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER. LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A
LOW-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT, CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR. LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, THOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE IS
A MIXTURE OF CELLS AND LINEAR CLUSTERS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD.
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LAST 15 MIN WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES. THE KVWX VAD SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE
LOWEST 1-2KM WITH 0-500M SRH ABOVE 250 M2/S2 NEAR THE FRONT. THIS
AND AN STP OF 1-2 WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
WITH ANY STRONGER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OR QLCS SEGMENTS AS THEY
APPROACH THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND STORM MOTIONS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
CONVECTION INTO MORE STABLE AIR THIS EVENING. THIS SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..LYONS/SMITH.. 10/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38528822 39168760 39328663 39298605 39158560 38938540
38628557 38428618 38298735 38288785 38188807 38528822
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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