545
ACUS11 KWNS 162134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162133
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686...687...
VALID 162133Z - 162300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 686, 687
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY
OF WIND DAMAGE SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THE COMPLEX WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2130 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE
NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC SHOWED A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NY TO VA. PORTIONS OF THIS LINE HAVE A
HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS WW686. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM IS
STRONGLY SHEARED, BUT INCREASINGLY STABLE WITH SBCAPE DECREASING
BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SLIGHTLY MORE BUOYANCY
IS BEING OBSERVED FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA WHERE MORE
CLEARING HAS BEEN PRESENT. TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR SHOW NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE HAVE WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THIS
TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS STORMS MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WW687,
THOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELD WILL STILL FAVOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING.
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PA, INTO SOUTHERN NJ AND THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WW687 BEFORE
CONVECTION WEAKENS/MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND 2-3Z.
..LYONS.. 10/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38837882 40337619 42027416 42027313 41897278 41567273
40877320 38717500 38347738 38427802 38837882
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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