247
FNUS21 KWNS 170653
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
..SYNOPSIS
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING TRANSITIONS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY. ELSEWHERE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY,
POST-FRONTAL FLOW AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
..SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WEST OF THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA, WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN RESIDUAL EASTERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW TODAY. GENERALLY EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 MPH (LOCALLY
UP TO 25 MPH) WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS IN TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS. WHILE RH VALUES WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 15%-20% IN THE AFTERNOON (LOCALLY LOWER), WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE OFFSHORE-DIRECTED PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL SUPPORT LINGERING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SIMI
VALLEY AND SIERRA MADRE/SAN RAFAEL RANGES.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUPLED WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF
10-15 MPH (WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH) AND MINIMUM DAYTIME RH
VALUES OF AROUND 25-30% ATOP RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS COMMONLY ABOVE
THE 80-90TH PERCENTILES) WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FROM SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHEASTERN AR AND MUCH OF
MS.
..CHALMERS.. 10/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page