201
ACUS01 KWNS 171942
SWODY1
SPC AC 171941
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
..SYNOPSIS
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OUTLOOK. THE THUNDER AREA HAS BEEN
TRIMMED SOUTHWARD IN CENTRAL FL TO MATCH MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT.
TO THE WEST, ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE EAST OF THE WEAK
CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
ANY LIGHTNING THREAT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MARGINAL BUOYANCY
DEPTH/MAGNITUDE, BUT WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREA.
..THOMPSON.. 10/17/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1114 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POSITIVE-TILT UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA
CALIFORNIA BORDER. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
INFLUENCED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA PRIMARILY THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RELEGATED TO THE FL
STRAITS AND OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN AZ.
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