912
FNUS21 KWNS 180607
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
..NO CRITICAL AREAS
..SYNOPSIS
A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OFF OF THE EAST COAST
TODAY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND A ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A
SECOND AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. RECENT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PLAINS, AND
EAST WILL LARGELY TEMPER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THESE REGIONS
TODAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15-25% RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CA, SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OR, AND
NORTHWESTERN NV, WHERE ERCS ARE NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80-90TH
PERCENTILES. CONFIDENCE IN A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF OVERLAP OF ELEVATED
WIND/RH CRITERIA REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS, BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
MATERIALIZE SHOULD AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS OVERLAP RH BELOW 20%.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PRECEDING A LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND
SEPARATELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING PARTS OF GA,
SC, AND AL, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH. POOR TO MARGINAL FUELS, RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THESE AREAS, AND BORDERLINE WIND/RH CONDITIONS (10-15 MPH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND 20-25% MINIMUM DAYTIME RH ACROSS THE
PLAINS) ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THESE REGIONS, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS.. 10/18/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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