460
ACUS11 KWNS 211349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211349
AZZ000-211515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211349Z - 211515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF ANY RAMP UP IN STORM COVERAGE,
WHICH IS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE WEAKENED AS THE CONVECTION
MOVED ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND INTO A SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ATOP THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF PHOENIX
WITHIN A LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME, POTENTIALLY AIDED BY EMBEDDED
SPEED MAXIMA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF
ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING IS IN QUESTION, A
CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST WITH
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY (PER MODIFIED RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS) AND
HODOGRAPH LENGTH/CURVATURE BASED ON THE OBSERVED VWPS FROM KIWA AND
KFSX. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE RIM AND THE ZONE OF
SOMEWHAT GREATER BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR. THOUGH TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN, A RAMP UP IN STORM COVERAGE COULD JUSTIFY WATCH ISSUANCE
AT SOME POINT LATER THIS MORNING.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 10/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 33141259 33291355 34091384 34881348 35371310 35531244
35331165 34811111 33941121 33411181 33141259
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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