159
ACUS11 KWNS 211836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211835
AZZ000-212100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211835Z - 212100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING
BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AZ --
BENEATH A PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
CONTINUED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS SHOULD
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 20Z-23Z TIME
FRAME. THE KEMX VWP IS SAMPLING AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH (40-50 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR) AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE (ALBEIT
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH). THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE DESTABILIZING PBL, WILL SUPPORT
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR SEPARATED UPDRAFTS, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS (THOUGH A TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS). WHILE
TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, A WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA.
..WEINMAN/MOSIER.. 10/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 32340968 32401094 32691159 33351273 33641292 33841285
33971261 34061157 34091105 34040993 33940931 33680912
33210904 32630916 32340968
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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