265
ACUS11 KWNS 211954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211954
AZZ000-212130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 688...
VALID 211954Z - 212130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 688 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH #688, WITH
A POTENTIAL FOCUS OVER PARTS OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KFSX CONTINUES TO DEPICT
PERIODIC SUPERCELLS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
YAVAPAI INTO SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES, WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
MAXIMIZED WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED
WARM-AIR ADVECTION. SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS MORNING, MOST OF THESE
STORMS LOCALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERACT WITH TERRAIN FEATURES,
WHERE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND MESOSCALE ASCENT REMAIN MAXIMIZED.
GIVEN POCKETS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND AROUND 150-200
M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH (PER OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS AND KFSX VWP), THIS
AREA SHOULD REMAIN LOCALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES IN THE NEAR TERM.
..WEINMAN.. 10/21/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...
LAT...LON 34541281 34801319 35081327 35461310 35751269 35991214
36001187 35901163 35541143 34641139 34311168 34351212
34541281
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page