047
ACUS11 KWNS 220041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220040
CAZ000-220145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 220040Z - 220145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A TORNADOE AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS EVENING. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 250
STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH A 50
TO 70 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM, STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE, A SOUTH-TO-NORTH BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF SAN LUIS OBISPO, AND IS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER THIS
EVENING. WSR-88D VWP NEAR SAN LUIS OBISPO HAS 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY AROUND 150 MS/S2. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ROTATING ELEMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE BAND. IF AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE
OVERLAND, AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 10/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR...
LAT...LON 36082168 35932159 35312105 34802081 34492064 34342042
34412008 34631997 35142014 35752050 36162085 36312104
36402122 36362147 36252166 36082168
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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