149
ACUS11 KWNS 220322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220321
NMZ000-AZZ000-220515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690...
VALID 220321Z - 220515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 690
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS HAS A 60 TO 70 KNOT
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. LIFT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA, WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVER EASTERN ARIZONA, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE UPPER 50S F AND THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 750 TO 1000 J/KG.
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINTAINED. IN ADDITION, THE WSR-88D VWP AT FLAGSTAFF SHOWS A
LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH WITH 55 TO 65 KNOT OF FLOW IN THE
MID-LEVELS. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO THE EAST OF FLAGSTAFF HAVE 0-3 KM
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY REMAINING IN THE 200 TO 250 M2/S2 RANGE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS.
..BROYLES.. 10/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 35791148 36231103 36391056 36411004 36290960 36050921
35400902 34250906 33690933 33610945 33420991 33431051
33551117 33841175 33871179 34291195 35031179 35791148
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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