698
ACUS11 KWNS 220454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220453
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-220600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA...FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH...FAR
NORTHWEST ARIZONA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 220453Z - 220600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT FROM FAR
NORTHEAST NEVADA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WESTERN ARIZONA EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA, ALONG WHICH
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. THE RAP HAS A
LOCALIZED MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
INSTABILITY MAX OVER THE LAST HOUR, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. THESE STORMS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. THE LATEST VAD
WIND PROFILE NORTHEAST OF LAS VEGAS HAS 50 TO 60 KNOTS OF FLOW IN
THE MID-LEVELS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. SUPERCELLS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 10/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 36311348 36201401 36191450 36291474 36561493 36961495
37431480 37981447 38291398 38221331 37951302 37511283
36651299 36311348
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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