690
ACUS03 KWNS 220719
SWODY3
SPC AC 220718
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL OR A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVOKE A
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF NORTHWESTWARD MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, RESULTING IN ENOUGH BUOYANCY AND SHEAR OVERLAP TO SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
..PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM INTO FAR WEST TX
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, 40-50 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND 7+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW
WILL OVERSPREAD MID TO UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND BACKED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. WITH SURFACE HEATING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG,
PERHAPS LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG IN SPOTS GIVEN LOCALLY GREATER
INSOLATION. VEERING AND STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL YIELD
MODESTLY CURVED AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, WITH OVER 40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXPECTED. MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
MERGING INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
SHOULD BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THEIR SUPERCELL STAGE, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..SQUITIERI.. 10/22/2026
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