216
ACUS11 KWNS 221240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221240
AZZ000-221445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA...NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...692...
VALID 221240Z - 221445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691, 692
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A PERIOD OF INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
INCLUDING A COUPLE OF EVOLVING SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A
TORNADO, STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 7-9 AM MST.
DISCUSSION...STRONGEST RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
FOCUSED NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, EAST OF PHOENIX
NORTHWARD INTO THE SHOW LOW VICINITY. HOWEVER, OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT A CORRIDOR OF BETTER BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY
LINGERS TO THE WEST, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF INTO THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA, WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED A BIT INTO THE
UPPER 60S F, AS A PROMINENT UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
PIVOTS TOWARD THE REGION. ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT, COUPLED
WITH AT LEAST SOME BOOST TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (INCLUDING
NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRADUAL ONSET OF DIURNAL
HEATING, COULD STILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 14-16Z. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG CONTINUING
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THIS MAY INCLUDING EVOLVING SUPERCELLS POSING A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A RISK
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR.. 10/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 33751216 34431241 35161175 34451035 33950969 32901065
33141202 33751216
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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