123
ACUS11 KWNS 221855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221855
NMZ000-AZZ000-222030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 693...
VALID 221855Z - 222030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 693 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AZ, WITH TRANSIENT ORGANIZATION/EMBEDDED ROTATION. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THIS ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AZ INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL NM. HERE, CLOUD
BREAKS ARE SUPPORTING DIURNAL HEATING/BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION
AMID MIDDLE/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS. AROUND 70 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(SAMPLED BY THE FGZ 18Z SOUNDING) AND BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS (AND
RELATED ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
SEVERE WINDS GUSTS, AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
..WEINMAN.. 10/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 33311050 33771081 34191098 34591103 35311094 35881045
35990993 35950941 35790905 35040877 33620871 33210891
33060957 33311050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page