777
ACUS03 KWNS 221929
SWODY3
SPC AC 221928
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL OR A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTHERN-STREAM CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD OVER THE
LOWER CO VALLEY. SUBSTANTIAL UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS CYCLONE, AND THE
GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CYCLONE TO BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
AZ BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN THE WESTERN CYCLONE AND EASTERN RIDGING, EXTENDING
FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS NM AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL ALSO PRECEDE THIS CYCLONE, RESULTING IN A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT AND INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHWEST.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NM INTO FAR WEST TX
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AT LEAST MODEST DAYTIME
HEATING WILL FOSTER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NM INTO FAR WEST TX, DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SLOWLY APPROACHING CYCLONE. GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (AND
RESULTANT BUOYANCY) IS EXPECTED FROM FAR WEST TX INTO SOUTHERN NM,
WITH MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY FARTHER NORTH. THE
MODERATELY STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
LONG HODOGRAPHS, AND AN ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK, WITH
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES AS WELL. A RELATIVELY
HIGHER SEVERE RISK COULD MATERIALIZE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NM INTO FAR
WEST TX WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDINESS AND THE QUALITY
OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRECLUDES INTRODUCES ANY HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..MOSIER.. 10/22/2026
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