538
ACUS11 KWNS 222015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222014
COZ000-UTZ000-222145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 222014Z - 222145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD, WITH THE
MAIN CONCERNS BEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN UT AND SOUTHWESTERN CO, YIELDING
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY,
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL
LOW/TROUGH OVER CA AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS (AROUND
60 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PER GJX VWP) SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES DEVELOPING/SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS, THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT -- GIVEN
MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 10/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GJT...
LAT...LON 37090800 37060962 37390995 37750991 38140952 38250903
38230827 38090802 37860780 37450775 37090800
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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