112
ACUS11 KWNS 222201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222201
NMZ000-AZZ000-230000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2402
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0501 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 693...
VALID 222201Z - 230000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 693 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE RAP SHOWS A 60 TO 80 KNOT
MID-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
SPEED MAX AT 700 MB MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA, WHERE A CLUSTER
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING NEAR
A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO
2500 J/KG RANGE. NEAR THE INSTABILITY MAX, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WITH LONG AND
RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO WILL ALSO EXIST AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 10/22/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 32590979 32640907 33000836 33340793 33840780 34440791
34780817 34920873 34880915 34710955 34111017 33731039
33551047 33171049 32891035 32741015 32590979
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page